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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 681.43

+1.6%

Nov 10 4:00 PM EST

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To: bobby beara who wrote (68889)	2/10/2001 3:23:03 PM
From: John Madarasz	Read Replies (1) of 99985

A few fun facts from Friday... re: COMPX - fell 7% last week...worst weekly decline in 8 weeks - is now up less than 1 point for the year - Friday now counts as the THIRD undeniable distribution day for the index in less than TWO weeks, with another arguable day on Jan. 30, not to mention the change in volume reporting regs which I'll bet has allowed for more stealth distribution. Usually 4 days of distribution signaled by higher volume on down days in 4 weeks time portends a decline in an index. We now have that in 2 weeks time<g>...not good - Advance Decline line for the index down for second straight week. Losers lead 5-3 re: NDX 100 - fell 4% for the week - among NDX stocks with earnings the average P/E is still apx 78 - 7 components of the NDX 100 slumped to new 52 week lows incl. ADBE, NTAP and CSCO - Oracle 2 pts away from a NEW 52 week low Is this the bottom of this decline?... I doubt it. Not with the distribution going on. Rallies should be short lived, and will probably be sold. Interestingly the put/call ratio rose to .76 but the spike to 1.1 in late Dec. 2000 was the result of to few calls...not a heavy load of puts. The last time the P/C ratio truly spiked above 1.0 was at the October 98 bottom- 1.0786 Margin liquidation calls Monday??? You bet<gg> What's that stoopid bumper sticker say anyway... No Fear?<ggg> Yeah, that's the ticket. *much of this information from IBD's Big Picture page #A20

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