Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 262.92

+0.4%

Dec 29 3:59 PM EST

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To: brunn who wrote (42010)	2/10/2001 3:39:24 PM
From: advocatedevil	of 70976

Brunn, AMAT's P/E has moved in a fairly broad range: Last Fiscal Year ending PE = 22.1 Last Fiscal Year PE High = 48 Low = 16.7 5 Year PE High = 66.9 Low = 6.6 With a current P/E near 18 it does seem like we could be near bottom, but I have to agree with your comment: "...who will care in May or June about earnings this year of 1.00, if there is a perception that earnings will increase back to previous highs next year..." Unlike CSCO, I doubt if anyone care's much if AMAT slightly misses, but like CSCO, an extended weak outlook could be nasty. A potential problem here is that things can change quickly with push-outs and cancellations happening at a moments notice. Even the players have great difficulty in predicting what's going to happen more than a quarter out. Look what just happened to AMAT. Morgan's 1/30 warning for the quarter was based on what specifically occurred in January. Regardless of the forward looking comments we hear next week, we'll probably end up not knowing much more than we know today. As for opinion and where AMAT will trade, well, that's another story. AdvocateDevil

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