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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: Eric L who wrote (39148)	2/10/2001 4:24:48 PM
From: foundation	Read Replies (2) of 54805

Eric, "Sulpizio's comment about DoCoMo's commercial trial limiting data transmission rates to 64 kbps mirrors a 4 month old statement out of DoCoMo, and contradicts the statement made in early December by Akira Hiroike of DoCoMo that downlink speeds of 384 kbps and uplink speeds will be 64 kbps on day one." In light of reports from Matsushita, do you care to hazard a guess as to when "day one" might be? Message 15325576 May, or June, or even July seems much less likely than it did last week. Perhaps after they've had an opportunity to sample Q's 5400MSM..... "The 1x family is 6 months to 1 year behind W-CDMA in IMT-2000 standardization. That is NOT an opininion, it is fact, and standardization precedes commercialization, which in turn precedes deployment and mass market acceptance or hypergrowth." Quite true. But 1xevdo should have IMT-2000 certification by November (with production chipsets soon). And 1xevdv will follow in its wake. And by all appearances, 3GPP is farther from completion of UTRAN Evolution/HSDPA than 3GPP2 is with 1xevdv - as inferred by the correspondence I receive almost daily from associated working groups. And although standardization precedes commercialization, wCDMA's lead in standardization will, by all appearances, not lead to faster commercialization or deployment - due to inherant technologic complications with wCDMA..... barring SpinCo's prospective contributions. "...perhaps we will get better visibility than we have enjoyed with the October "commercial launch" of 1xRTT at SKT where some say transmission speeds were limited to 64 kbps initially..." I must have missed this - I'd appreciate if you'd share the URL to this release... "We should all be glad QUALCOMM is going to save the W-CDMA day. Rich sure painted a bleak (but perhaps in many cases realistic) picture of W-CDMA adoption and rollout." Certainly timely considering Matsushita's problems. Care to speculate how long it will be until NTT announces a formal delay for their wCDMA program - or is the sample group so small, cloistered and controlled that proceeding without handsets is a possibility? <g> ben

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