Lots of if's.
What if margins tank due to competition and/or sales grows @21% not 31%?
What if they only earn .90 or less next year?(not a typo)
What if the econ continues to erode???
What if any/many of these great purchases blows up?(man those dudes got smoked,,, must be steaming hot, most of them)
What if my dog $hits in Henry's back yard again?
Will he build me a fence??<<GGG,,ok a little funny>>
What if....
Seriously, when things go bad in chip land...they usually go "BAD". These are the first revisions DOWN...and if the econ continues in its current trend, expect more,.. soon. I don't even want to get into the other stuff, i've documented most of it here already. A while back I said 55 was approx. fair value for it. I'm not sure which post explains why:
siliconinvestor.com
but I've just updated that target, today..now..,,,
Econ takes a powder and 35 is my New "recession" target.
Say they earn 1.00 but things still slow into end of next year, so it trades at 35pe as we come out of the cycle. Not so crazy now is it? |
