Oh, yeah, sure..... I spent all day re-designing our site, updating the message boards, reprogramming and now you do this?!!! -gggggggggg-
Agree that moderating this doesn't mean it has to die like another thread. I seriously doubt bannings will be done for arbitrary reasons or things that aren't blatently obvious.
FWIW - Here is what I wrote this morning on our site. ( which is new and improved.-g-).........
Of grave concern is the huge gap up in bonds. Is this a simple panic gap that will go back and fill or is this a break away gap? Unsure.
As Don and I talked last night, we are noticing some strange divergences. Gold is down, the dollar is strong yet the VIX is low. I have a XAU/HUI/Gold chart that is primed to bounce while at the same time, we have a R2K with a weekly grave stone Doji, a NASDAQ that is over sold and a DOW that looks like it is rolling over. Can we have a rallying gold and NASDAQ market at the same time? Looking at some stcks on the 3 line break charts, it is obvious we are about to hit an air pocket where there are no supports if we drop too much farther. The 3 line break of EMC has a pronounced Head and Shoulder that points to a 50% hair cut from this already hard hit level. Others are also looking like this.
The weekly OEX points to a bounce around 660 but the daily shows we could go as low as 640. The NASDAQ targets are closer to 2200 and 2000.
THe only thing I see in the bulls favor right now is Greenspan doing his Humphey Hawkins testimony on Tuesday and an options expiration week where Max Pain is quite a bit higher than current levels besides many over sold readings. There are a bunch of negated signals however which is not good.
Looking back through some historical charts, whenever some key stocks like EMC formed huge bearish black candles like this on the weekly, the next week was up. However, all those occurances were also in a bull market and all those occurances also resulted in another drop a couple weeks later.
The other thing I am wrestling with historically is just as I was bearish due to our 6 week double bottom window, that may also serve as a bullish arguement now that we are approaching that double bottom target. I am also keeping in mind that it may be a lower low since historically, as I posted a few weeks back when the FOMC cut, following a rate cut, most times the market formed a lower low within 3 months before heading back up.
All these things leave a few questiuons up in the air. Can the metals market bounce with the NASDAQ? Are Bonds trying to tell us something? Will this short term low prove to be a double bottom or just a pause before wave 5 down?
My best early guess right now without finishing my chart reviews is that we should witness a rotation out of the DOW to the techs in the next week once the NDX hits 2000. That bounce may not go too far but there is a risk of it being a fierce rally also since many stocks that have rallied recently went almost verticle such as the IT sector ones I have been mentioning over the last few weeks and SFA etc. I do think there is going to be some careful selection required however since stocks like EMC have bearish charts, MSFT may be weakening here etc. Since this could either be a quick or else a fierce hard rally, the use of stops will be required to avoid trying to guess when to exit. YOU MUST STICK TO THOSE STOPS!
I saw quite a few questions pondering ORCL's weakness. Recall I wrote last week that Larry Elison ( the CEO) had filed to dump over 150 Million dollars of stock this month. 1.) that puts pressure on the stock and 2.) investors have to worry if this is another case of the Management getting out ahead of bad news. I would be careful with this one despite them saying last quarter that things were great. Note JNPR said the same thing then changed their tune 2 weeks later.
I will write more later after I have reviewed some more of my charts indicators etc.
Good Luck,
Lee |
