EMC How high can it go? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : EMC How high can it go?

EMC 29.05

0.0%

Sep 15 5:00 PM EST

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To: Gus who wrote (12110)	2/11/2001 1:47:34 AM
From: Conan	Read Replies (1) of 17183

Another point about the 80% win rate: What if NTAP is right BUT they are losing the 20% that are the biggest deals? I own both stocks. About IDC. I have worked for a company that reported numbers to IDC. I have done due dilligence on companies (from the inside during a potential acquisition) that report numbers to IDC. I have found three common misrepresentations with IDC numbers: 1) Companies over report numbers for products that represent new segments they are entering (they underreport older segments that are not "hot" to compensate). You can be certain that any sub 1% market share number is actually zero. Any number that represents $2M or less is likely to actually be far less. 2) You can see how IDC analysts try to compensate for this by comparing past projections in similar reports from different years. You will find that they often revise previously reported numbers down as they discover the deception practised on them. 3) When one company in an industry is lying to IDC the others frequently are forced to pump up their numbers too. Consider IDC numbers to be like the reported height and weight for football players--At least 10 pounds and 1.5 inches above reality. Conan

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