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Technology Stocks : Corning Incorporated (GLW)
GLW 80.71-0.5%1:12 PM EST

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To: JOHN N. who wrote (1236)2/11/2001 3:55:09 AM
From: Dale Baker  Read Replies (2) of 2260
 
First I decide where I think the market will be one and two years out. I could see the Naz in mid-3000's by Jan 02 and 4000's by Jan 03.

So the next question is where GLW is likely to trade at those points. My guess is GLW goes back to the 80-100 range if the NASDAQ makes it back to 3500. Harder to say about Jan 03 except I know their business is solid for a few years, so the target price would be over $100.

I don't like to pay for lots of time premium with LEAPs. Just my preference. So I look at what an at the money or in the money LEAP would cost today. For GLW the Jan 02 40's you pay less than $13 today.

A $13 investment now has a good chance of being worth $40-60 by the end of the year, good risk-reward in my book since your downside is less than $20.

You can get the same profit buying shares if you are willing to put up $40 now instead of $13. Your downside is probably lower if the market doesn't rebound. GLW probably has good support in the 30's.

The Jan 03 40 GLW LEAPS are only $16, an excellent risk-reward. If I add in GLW I will probably go for those to spread out my time risk.

Hope that helps.
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