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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis
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To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (45)2/11/2001 2:46:09 PM
From: Paul Shread  Read Replies (3) of 52237
 
That's the problem with channel failures; there's no measurable downside target. It's usually just a retracement of part of the gains made within the channel; occasionally a retest of the lows, and almost never new lows. With a wedge - E&M are crystal clear on this - the primary trend is still down, and thus a 100% retracement is the target, but new lows almost always occur because of that primary trend. We didn't have a single perfectly formed wedge on this rally, beginning off the lows on decreasing volume, and the SPX and OEX were technically perfect channels, so the only conclusion I can draw is that the primary trend is changing. The one negative I see is that the channel breaks could mean that the uptrend is exhausted for now, meaning a trading range/consolidation. We might just go nowhere, which is the one thing that probably no one expects. Bulls and bears could both be wrong on this one. ;-)
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