Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 301.11

+6.9%

Jan 9 9:30 AM EST

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: michael97123 who wrote (42035)	2/11/2001 3:30:04 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) of 70976

I suspect there are many in sales in other tech areas that are beginning to sense recovery since the Fed first lowered rates. Yes, indeed. I don't know if you follow the Economic Cycle Research Institute, but I've made cyber friends with Lakshman Achuthan who is the Managing Director and he posts updates on my site. (He is also on CNBC once or twice a month as well as Yahoo! finance) Here are some examples: suite101.com The growth rate of the Weekly Leading Index recovered to -1.5% in the Jan. 26th reading from -3.5% in the Jan. 19th reading. The recent recovery in the Weekly Leading Index provides ground for cautious optimism. If it persist, it will be an early sign that the overall economy is veering away from a recessionary path. and just last week: suite101.com In answer to Steve's question: In what vicinity on the LEI do we switch to inflation watch? The short answer to your question is watch the Future Inflation Gauge (FIG) if you want to know when to worry about upcoming inflation pressures. I would like to clarify, that the Yahoo interview shows charts of two very different leading indicators. The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) is all about economic growth. We are hopeful that it has made a cyclical turn up, pointing to an end to the downturn in the coincident measures of the economy on the horizon. Now my (Kirk's) comments: The ECRI FIG charts showed that inflation turned over at about the time we had our election fiasco. I believe that the Fed didn't want to lower rates until the political issues were settled but the data was in hand in November that said inflation had turned. I think that the 2 month wait to lower rates will cause our "landing" to be harder than it could have been and might even go to a quarter or two of negative GDP growth. On the positive side (read those ECRI links I posted), the weekly leading index (WLI) has turned up and has continued up for the past 3 weeks so it indicates that we are looking at better growth in the future unless something bad happens to cause an uncharacteristic switch in direction. BTW, you can subscribe to the ECRI thread so when Lakshman posts an update you will be sent an email. There is a link to subscribe at the bottom of the page or use this: suite101.com This chart shows the WLI graph thru Feb 2 and how it has changed direction: suite101.com

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next