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Technology Stocks : 3DO: Hot Games for Hot Machines (THDO)
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To: David Patrick O'Connor who wrote (3782)2/11/2001 5:01:02 PM
From: Bruce Prescott  Read Replies (1) of 4081
 
Good read. I particularly liked this part:

"The demand from the mainstream audience comes when there's an installed base already -- when there are more games available." With Xbox, GameCube and PlayStation 2 offering comparable hardware, a lot of their future success depends on who comes up with the next killer game. "There's a saying in the industry is that it all comes down to software, it all comes down to games," Ahmed says. "It depends on who gets the hot, hot product."

I just disagree with their conclusion: "And at this point, you can't really tell who will have the edge in that."

I say the edge goes to the machine whose game developers have had the longest time to prepare games for market. X-box is least likely to have a hot product because it has the shortest lead time.

The battle will be between Nintendo and Sony. Sony's machine is already out and will have an installed base in excess of 10 million by the end of March. Who knows what the installed base will be by the time Game-cube hits the streets? How long will it take for Game-cube to get an installed base large enough for game developers to sell enough games to make a profit?

Nintendo's only hope is to have a game so hot that it will sell their machines. How many game company's can afford to gamble that one will be produced? Sony will be the only hardware maker with an installed base that can guarantee a game maker of a reasonable chance of success.

Sony is sure to have both the greatest variety and the highest quality games -- the games that the "mainstream audience" is looking for. Sony seems like the safest bet to me.
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