Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

CSCO 78.39

+1.3%

3:59 PM EST

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To: PMS Witch who wrote (48774)	2/11/2001 5:23:47 PM
From: chic_hearne	Read Replies (1) of 77400

Currentlly, the consensus of this thread is quite negative for CSCO. The media shares this view too. Recent share prices reflect this sentiment. Price bottoms form in such environments. I would agree if this were true. Yes, this thread is quite bearish, but I don't think this represents the market sentiment one bit. Investor's Intelligence just made a bullish high that we haven't seen since 1987. I think that's a much better indicator than this thread. There are many reasons why SI as a whole is moving to a bearish stance. For one, many of the bullish posters that were on margin are probably wiped out by now and not posting anymore. Also, the bears are the ones making money the last year so we haven't gone away and many of us are posting more frequently. Those two reasons explain to me why SI seems bearish, but I don't think this represents the true market psychology at the moment. The average Joe 6 Pack probably doesn't check his/her stocks more than once a week and probably rarely trades. "They" are the ones following what the Investor's Intelligence numbers suggest, buying or holding longs. "They" don't spend nearly as much time at this as anyone that takes the time to join SI and post on message boards. [not that there's anything wrong with this, many such as my parents don't have the time or the desire to follow the market daily. They're in mufu's letting other people do the dirty work] "They" also represent the majority of the money in the market. What also strikes me is that the commercials have not yet reversed their record net short position in the S&P 500, while as 60 minutes exposed there are only 29 sell ratings by the major houses. Doesn't this strike anyone else as odd behavior that the houses are bullish in what they say, but remain at record short levels? The commercials are rarely, if ever, wrong. I've read some pieces about the commercials and their history in various markets from stocks to commodities and they have a tremendous record of being right. I don't think we're anywhere near a bottom. JMHO chic

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