Hi Ron,
Personally I think this company is too
volatile to apply T/A with any significant degree of confidence.
I take a slightly different view: Personally I think this company does not trade enough volume to apply T/A with any significant degree of confidence.
From another point, DMX IMO is tightly held but is also unknown. This also affects T/A. It appears there is a certain degree of control over the share price that can be excerted by people in the know. I think Osprey alluded to this. This of course is MHO. 3 reasons for this:
1. During the down swing since May, the accum/distrib line has flat lined. (Divergence) The volume dropped off. There was the drip bucket effect. Accumulation was very easy and well disguised. The only time we had any sizable form of distribution was breaking 5.00. This could have been stop loss triggers, fear of one's portfolio, the tree shaking worked, TD received an order unloading 1MM+ shares, etc.
2. The recent $5.00 rise in price was associated with relatively small increase in volume (200K+shares /day). Shares again changed hands. The accum/distrib line showed much accumulation happening. ($3.50 to 8.50/9.20)
3. Imagine Acqua acquiring $50mm worth of shares in open market transactions?! Where would the price be today if that happened? All the tree shaking, move the price down and up could not fill such an order because of low liquidity. So the equity PP. Let's assum they could/did enter the market with an average bid of 7.00 and people responded by giving away shares. That's about 7MM+ shares later the order is filled. Is this likely?? That represents about 17% of the o/s. They probably know they could not accum 7MM shares (but maybe 2MM at $25/share) without disturbing the lackluster share price habit of DMX.
I'm looking forward to March 1 sales launch of Pennsaid and 3Q report about April 10th. Perhaps this combination will push the buttons of mainline funds to begin soaking up DMX.
I also look forward to celebrate with Celebrex tomorrow. I read but did not keep the link that Celebrex and Vioxx combined sales todate has only penetrated some __% of its world wide market. Sorry, for the blank%, I should post the link and not a guess of my ability recall (it swas around 40% and they did it mostly in the USA and within one year!).
So Wolf, are you still sticking with 5% market share for Pennsaid with 1 full year of sales??
BTW where's Osprey? |
