Carl,
PLUM has some very big, very smart money behind them. That can help with all sorts of issues. Certainly it got them a lot of free press. Sequoia Capital, Janus, Red Rock, and CSFB are just a few of the investors. CSFB are also their investment bank.
[Personally, I thought it was bad news for TOPT when CSFB made their investment in PLUM and agreed to be the lead underwriter on the PLUM IPO. All this happened AFTER the same bunch agreed to underwrite TOPT. To my mind, that did not show all that much confidence.]
PLUM also has the most seasoned management of the bunch. VP and director level folks from companies we all have heard of. That tends to inspire confidence on the street.
VIAD has lost a lot of management and really don't have anybody substantial in the mix that I can see.
TOPT has never had much in the way of seasoned management. Mostly it's been run by the bunch of Israelis who founded the company, none of whom have ever worked elsewhere, as far as I can tell. They're definitely smart people, but I wonder if they're smarter about developing software than they are about selling it. The guys who used to run their sales area were reasonably experienced, but were apparently all laid off recently. The new president who came over from SAP seems to have brought over a sales guy of his own. (Or, at the least, they came over at the same time.) Those two are the only ones TOPT has with substantial managment experience at a major software firm, but have only been around for a short period and it's impossible to judge what impact they may have going forward.
PLUM does have an issue with license costs because they don't (in my opinion) have a whole lot of original technology or R&D of their own. Technologically, I always thought it was a fairly weak solution, despite the compelling PR. They have improved it since I was last working in the business, but others have improved too...
I think what we're seeing is actually a typical early shakeout. 50-75% just won't have the capital to get themselves past a late development stage. That's pretty normal for emerging categories.
There'll probably be a later shakeout as well, as the market matures and several of the others consolidate or are bought out.
mg |
