t2,
You need to know much more to evaluate CRA. First, the functional genes are much smaller than what CRA originally thought, therefore, most the genes are already patented by the likes of HGSI.
Secondly, according the the industry, CRA's database does not provide that much more information than what's already known. The big pharms don't care about spending some $$ on genomic database as they subscribe a handful of databases at the same time anyway. However, the consensus among leaders SKB, MLNM, PFE etc are that CRA overcharged for their database and some of them are in talks with government to fund them finishing their project. This will significantly undermine CRA's valuation.
Finally, the gene patent law has significantly changed to the degree that CRA's gene annotation based on computational biology has no monoplay power over the usage of these genes. And do you know how long it takes to get one decent drug onto the market? MLNM has 12 drugs in the pipeline, but none with great market potential. There is no doubt that biotech will produce some winners in the next 10 years. However, 95% of those will be gone within the next 5 years and the leaders are significantly overvalued based in the outlook within the next 3 years.
larry |
