It's not a great idea to short CRA or genomics issue. Lots of big pharma are putting extra $$$ into the top named companies because they need to put their $$$ somewhere. And you also should expect some great fools to get in, trying to push the issue up, at least, temporarily.
Also take a note that CRA is backed up by PEBio, one of the few biotech companies run by some shrewd businessmen, who know how to sqeeze $$$ out of scientists without directly getting involved in drug discovery process. In the worst case that CRA drops to 10-15, which I believe is the true value of this issue, PEB will fully backup the truck and buy all it can of CRA. And if CRA's market cap drops to less than 1 billion, someone like SKB might be interested in msking a bid and taking over the issue.
Since I am working on bioinformatics field (nice pay check and safe haven facing near and long term recession), I know the value of these genomics database tool. These issues, together along with data visualization tools, greatly speed up the R&D process. However, they have not, and won't revolutionize drug discovery process. It usually takes 3-5 or more years to get a drug to 3rd phase, and the latter can take another 3-5 years before drug companies make $$ out of these issue.
Finally, about the new gene patent laws' effect on CRA. For example, you have discovered a gene which might be involved in breast cancer through some research (not similarity search or annotation performed through computational biology tools), you can patent the gene. However, later, another company find out that this particular gene product is involved in lung cancer, they can patent that gene again and you get 0 incentive.
larry |
