It seems to me that comparing ORCL with CSCO is simply foolish. They are in totally different markets.
I have this theory which feeds my desire to own ORCL. CSCO and SUNW are hardware makers with some software such as JAVA. They were booming with the internet buildout as companies need routers and servers, systems these companies make. And in the past two years with the .coms and ecommerce they have really been soaring.
But now the .coms have become the .bombs and this has got to lead to a lot of hardware being sold at bargain basement prices. Why should a company buy a new server or router when they can get a used one cheap. So I think sales of CSCO, SUNW, and other hardware makers are going to hurt for a while.
ORCL, on the other hand, makes software and only software. They do not deal so much with the small .com companies, focusing instead on the large fortune 500 companies and international companies with software that enhances productivity. SEBL and I2 are in this space also, with SEBL being the pure play leader. However, ORCL has a large company base with its exposure, lots of cash, and I think a competitive suite of products that will interface with its database software seamlessly. This has value and I don't think there is a glut of it floating around like hardware.
So I think long term ORCL should do fine. Now, there are questions on the street on whether ORCL will be able to dislodge SEBL and take this space, and questions about how much bunk Larry is throwing around as his reputation in the past has not been the greatest.( He is a bit of a flake in many ways.) But he can certainly run a company and is driven, so I have to go along with him for the ride.
Won't turn around immediately, so don't expect instant gratification.JMO |
