M,
<< This time, I think the analysts think that is is the bottom, thus the downgrade, but this time they are wrong (and the stock will sink and they will look good for once) >>
I'd say those who employ them (directly or indirectly) are not one bit concerned that they be "right", just that they get the job done. I suspect most in a position to really have a finger on the pulse know that there is a bottom at hand, that even now there is huge money flow into the markets, but it is being done quietly, of course. And so I think you'll see a lot of last-minute analyst/commentator/talking head posturing, endless moaning over earnings woes, slowdowns, recessions, Greenspans, inflations and so forth. All, IMHO, in a last-ditch effort to shake out the last of the retail sellers, get him to sell cheap, drive the prices down just a little bit more if possible.
The downgrades and growth slowdown/earnings moans will doubtless have the desired effect---but not for long, and when the stocks suddenly rise from the dead and rally, nobody will be there to point out that these people were dead, dead wrong in February and March, and dead, dead, wrong again now. And, in fact, most often couldn't be wronger if they set out to do so. Casual perusal of the analyst upgrade/downgrade history of just about any stock in play will be enough to convince you of this: the upgrades tend to cluster around market tops, and the downgrades tend to cluster close to market bottoms. And when there's a sudden slew of them issued---well, that just makes the "signal" all that more reliable, IMHO.
Instead, the media will do what it has always done: simply look the other way and pretend it isn't so, and breathlessly report every word coming from the mouths of the "Wall Street Experts." And the designated bagholders---the intended audience, of course---will once again listen, and so the game goes on.
Me, I'm no Wall Street Expert, so that makes all this
JMVHO
WS |
