M,
Many of the economic problems you outline I find little to quarrel with. That said, I think you are making an assumption which has been shown again and again to be without merit:
The stock market moves in particular directions for reasonable, rational reasons, which can be explained.
This is simply not true, although it is true that sooner or later any market will tend to regress to reflect the underlying economic realities of the environment in which it operates. Stock prices and market indices move in particular directions for one---and only one---"reason:" buying pressure relative to selling pressure. This relative pressure frequently has little to do with reality.
My point is simply that, for whatever "reason" (and it is irrelevant), there is accelerating buying pressure into the $COMPX. This will cause stock prices to rise as long as it continues---Greenspan, recession, PC sales, inventories, consumer confidence, P/Es, and Maria Bartoromo be damned.
JMVHO,
WS |
