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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: martin001 who wrote (67326)2/13/2001 4:05:08 PM
From: pater tenebrarum  Read Replies (1) of 436258
 
a BK does not need an outside catalyst. while it is true that in hindsight several possible 'catalysts' have been identified in the wake of BKs , i doubt that they were in fact catalysts.
in reality, there is no way one can identify the 'reason' for a panic...the only common thread is that speculative excesses preceded all panics. but what made the panics happen when they DID happen, no-one knows for sure.

it's of course possible that we get a slow grind...but i'm willing to bet it will be punctuated by periods of panic or near panic.
and then there's the usual disclaimer...i.e., we may be completely wrong.
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