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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: martin001 who wrote (67326)2/13/2001 4:07:27 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor  Read Replies (1) of 436258
 
<<A slow grind down seems more likely IMHO>>

I agree. The "clown tossed into a pot, then heat gradually raised scenario" Instead of the "clown tossed into boiling derivatives" is the one that is most likely here. A prolonged, 24 month grinder of a bear, ending only with MF redemptions in SOIZE. Hard to make money buying poots in that environment, but golden if you like shorts. The first real milestone will be 3rd quarter earnings warnings (which IMO will be a huge disappointment, given the "second half" story that's been spun by everyone from Joey Butterpaglia to BubbleBoy himself). That, along with seasonal October paranoia should be a fairly toxic brew for the market. By that point the Fed will be constrained by the dollar and by renewed inflation, accelerated by rising natural gas and electricity costs. BWDIK?
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