NO, NO, IT IS NOT!!!!!
"...not a subtle distinction; a true rising wedge is very bearish and predicts at best a retest of the lows, and almost always new lows..."
Well, we're there, if he says so himself.
To:Michael Watkins who wrote (149)
From: Paul Shread Tuesday, Feb 13, 2001 3:18 PM
Respond to of 166
Michael, we'll probably never agree even partially on this, but I'll post once more on this to try to articulate my problems with the "wedge."
First, any chart pattern is either a reaction against or reversal of the previous trend; therefore, it is important to see what forms off the low in a downtrend, or the high in an uptrend. Hence the reason that I don't think that lower line should be cast aside so lightly.
Second, because it is a reaction or reversal, it is important to see what forms after the point where you begin the pattern; in this case, I get a steeper rising channel if I begin from the point where you did.
cache.wsrn.com
Given my problems with the volume, you can hopefully understand my reservations about calling this a rising wedge. Every wedge I have called since May has met all the above qualifications; I'm not asking for perfection, but to meet what I think are the basic qualifications for the pattern. It's not a subtle distinction; a true rising wedge is very bearish and predicts at best a retest of the lows, and almost always new lows. To call this a wedge ignores some bullish developments over the last month that haven't occurred in previous wedges formed since May. |
