Here's the second half of the article from Forbes mag:
Cable companies possess the advantage of already
owning dumb networks based on the essentials of the
all-optical model of broadcast and select-of customers
seeking wavelengths or frequencies rather than switching
circuits. Cable companies already provide all the
programs to all the terminals and allow them to tune in to
the desired messages. But the cable industry cannot
become a full-service supplier of telecommunications
unless the regulators give up their ridiculous two-wire
dream in which everyone competes with cable and no
one makes any money. Cash-poor and bandwidth-rich,
cable companies need to collaborate with telcos-which
are cash-rich and bandwidth-poor-in a joint effort to
create broadband systems in their own regions.
In all eras, companies tend to prevail by maximizing the
use of the cheapest resources. In the age of the
fibersphere, they will use the huge intrinsic bandwidth of
fiber, all 25,000 gigahertz or more, to simplify everything
else. This means replacing nearly all the hundreds of
billions of dollars' worth of switches, bridges, routers,
converters, codecs, compressors, error correctors, and
other devices, together with the trillions of lines of
software code, that pervade the intelligent switching
fabric of both telephone and computer networks.
The makers of all this equipment will resist mightily. But
there is no chance that the old regime can prevail by
fighting cheap and simple optics with costly and complex
electronics and software.
The all-optical network will triumph for the same reason
that the integrated circuit triumphed: It is incomparably
cheaper than the competition. Today, measured by the
admittedly rough metric of mips per dollar, a personal
computer is more than 2,000 times more cost-effective
than a mainframe. Within 10 years, the all-optical network
will be thousands of times more cost-effective than
electronic networks. Just as the electron rules in
computers, the photon will rule the waves of
communication.
The preceding was adapted from the Gilder Technology Report,
February 1997. For a newsletter subscription, call 1-800-888-9896.
For more information, email gtg@gilder.com. |
