Gottfried, another way to look at quarterly earnings is to measure the time from earnings peak to stock bottom.
For example, earnings peaked 3 months ago, when they reported their October results.
In 1996, earnings peaked in April quarter, which was reported in May. The stock reached bottom in July but you had until October-November to get in at prices within 10-20% of the bottom.
In 1998, earnings peaked in January quarter, which was reported in February. The stock bottomed in October, although near-bottom levels were reached by July.
Overall, the the stock bottoms about 2-8 months after peak earnings were reported. If we follow this pattern, AMAT should be bottoming over the next 4 months or so (2-8 months from November.) If people are anticipating this pattern, however, the stock may recover sooner than before. On the other hand, it may be difficult for AMAT to recover going into the summer-fall time period, historically the weakest season for semiequip stocks as well as the market. |
