FEB 14 INDEX UPDATE
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Just some more thoughts to yesterdays update.
Even if the NDX/NAZ retests its lows now, or even produces a slightly lower low, but the NAZ NEW HIGHs/LOWs do not deteriorate significantly, then that would imply that there could still be another major sell-off in the NAZ. So unless the the NAZ NEW HIGHs/LOWs deteriorates significantly with the RUT breaking its RISING WEDGE to the downside, along with deterioration in the BTK, there will still be the RISK of another major downleg.
As mentioned briefly yesterday, although my short-term technicals are so oversold the NAZ/NDX stilll could move straight down, in light of the BEARISH ENGULFING PATTERN and the possible NEGATED CLASS 1 BUY SIGNAL, and the previous 3-BLACK CROWs on the OEX. Concerning the possible CLASS 1 NEGATED SIGNAL, teh NAZ/NDX needs to bounce immediately. If they dont bounce immediately then thats another confirmation of a negated signal, then the NAZ/NDX could head lower. My rule is that with a NEGATED CLASS 1 SIGNAL, my short-term analysis is basicly useless.
In discussion with LEE last night, there is also another possible negative, this time in the DOW. From the DOW chart it appears to be an ASCENDING TRIANGLE, which would be bullish. ASCENDING TRIANGLEs normally occur on declining volume which has occurred; however it is more common that the attack on the the HORIZONTAL UPPER TRENDLINE should be made on INCREASING VOLUME. Just 2 days ago, the DOW attempted to break/approach the HORIZONTAL UPPER TRENDLINE which is around 11000, but this attempt was on DECLINING VOLUME. Also, this ASCENDING TRIANGLE is getting quite close to its APEX, where the the LOWER TRENDLINE of this ASCENDING TRIANGLE is around 10,800 - Its getting tight. There is still time, but not alot, for one more attempt to break the ASCENDING TRIANGLE to the upside, but if it is not on increasing volume then it could fail again.
In light of the RISING WEDGE in the RUT, I will be more cautious and will sell into the forthcoming rally(s). Will probably do a bit of hedging also. |
