fred e....."cable modem growth"
why i am not enamored with any company involved in broad band and question the growth ability that many place on the sector, is the reality that broad band roll out and implementation in the most populated of urban areas is literally non existent.....the same comment applies to dsl growth.....
at some point growth will exist, but not until a reliable infrastructure is in place in populated areas...but growth will be more a smooth curve, then exponential as was predicted...
no different then the premise that every one in china would have a cell phone this year, which caused a feeding frenzy in stocks like qcom in 1999......
the longer it takes to roll out broadband, the less exclusive the components become, time creates a commodity effect.
look at analysis of global crossing...."best of the bunch"..."a year ahead of competitors"...but they can criss cross the globe with fiber, and if there exists no users at the end of the fiber, then until the demand exists, they have created artificial deep water reefs....that remain dark....
in the real world it takes time to implement technology, in the past stocks were not bid up pre-emptively based on dreams, but more on actual growth.....the pc stocks are proof of this...
good luck
ed a. |
