Life at the Zoo:
seems the zoo keeper is smiling these days
it has been discovered that her new formula cures hunger pains and it doesn't cause those ugly side effects, which allows many more animals to consume the formula
she hasn't yet told the world of all of her new plans because she has financial people interested in upgrading her local petting zoo, but, the ink is almost dry......once she has fulfilled her obligations, i think she will have a "grand opening" with free balloons for all (she wants all the children to tell all their friends)
she knows that the the little animals have all been fed, but now the "lions and tigers" are starting to stir as they know that "lunch" is just around the corner, and lions and tigers consume large volumes and will soon eat up all the gentle little animals at the petting zoo to get to the formula
since there is very little space to work with, it only makes sense that she will use the help of her new backers to go to the big city and open up a much larger zoo......at the same time, she will likely feed all the lions and tigers to make them happy as happy animals bring in lots of admission fees
she will have to be careful to produce adequate supplies of the wonderful formula on a timely basis to keep the lions and tigers happy (oh and snakes too....let's not forget the snakes)
once the big city health authorities approve the new formula, the news will spread like wildfire and we will all have witnessed the little zoo that grew
On a more serious note, i have basically ignored dmx for the last couple of weeks as it has been obvious what has been going on and there seems to be little point to dissecting every move and possibility....we just have to sit back and watch the action.....imo, we saw the first of many tigers begin to stir yesterday and when the ink dries, i believe the action will begin to build and build
imo, the most exciting post in a long time was written by 3tier today on SH.....he is a physician and he indicated that he has recently been keeping score of how many times per day he would prescribe pennsaid if it were available......he figured 3-6 times per day and that 25,000 cdn docs could be in the same boat
just for fun, lets look at the math for a moment:
lets use 20% of his rate or 1 prescription/day x 250 days = 250 prescriptions per year
while 3 tier suggested 25000 docs, lets use 20% or 5,000 docs (we already have 1100 docs who used pennsaid during the phase 4 trial)
so, we could be looking at 1,250,000 prescriptions per year here in canada on a very conservative basis
pennsaid sold for $45 per bottle during the trials, so let's stick with that price.......while royalties in other countries have been discussed in the 20%-25% range, in canada, we will receive the entire "pop" which will likely be at least 50% .......so, where does that leave us
20% of the prescrition rate from 3tier = 1/day
20% of the docs suggested by 3tier = 5,000 docs
250 days per year = 1,250,000 scripts
50% of $45 = $22.50 per script
total profits = $28m
(i believe a reality check is in order, and if memory serves me correctly, one of the cox 2's did 550,000 scripts in the UK in the first 9 months with no phase 4 intro to the docs, so the numbers are therefore not that far fetched)
now, if we have a burn rate of $1mm/month, that reduces the
the pre tax profits from $28m to $14mm
the # of shares o/s will likely be 43mm next week
so, $14mm/43mm shares = $0.32 per share pre tax (and we have lots of writeoffs on the domestic front)
now, that is just Canada.....europe is 10x as large and so is the USA......those two markets will have approximately half the margins ($28mm * 10 * 2 *.5 = $280mm/43mm shares = $6.50/share) but virtually none of the costs, and the sales will all be out of Barbadoes which has a 2.5% tax rate
i won't bore you with an even LONGER discussion of other markets and margins, or of up front fees, or other products using the transdermal delivery system or wf10 or of what pe multiples might be attached to dmx
suffice it to say that i have been accumulating dmx shares for years based upon the belief that the "little zoo that grew" would be a slam dunk.......hope Rebecca "Carter" doesn't drop the ball on her way to the hoop......all signs point to a clear path and a steady hand |
