Hi Allen, I'm not much of a fan of VL's "Timeliness"
ratings unless one uses them in contrary form. I agree that
they arrive a bit late to the parties in most cases.
In the paper version on page 39 is a long list of what they
term "Highest Growth Stocks" which consist of companies
that have had ten years of exceptional growth and are
expected to have similar growth for the next 3-5 years. If
you look at the list, the names are all familiar.
Now, here's a way to screen from that list. Look at the
Timeliness "5" companies on the list. We know they've all
been good in the past, but for some reason are on
somebody's bad boy list right now. They could be victim of
Sector Rotation or some other ailment. Generally they make
for good candidates.
I have the October 13, 2000 page. From it there are three
stocks rated with a 5 Timeliness.
Symb. Oct 12, 2000 Feb. 14, 2001 % Change
BMCS $17 $31.13 +83.1
CTL $31 $28.79 - 7.1
CA $28 $35.50 +26.8
The theory is that if the Timeliness is already at 5, it's
not going to get any worse. Certainly an average of these
would have given you much better performance than what the
market has returned over the same period.
Jumping forward to January 19th (I happen to have that
issue, too), there's some newer additions.
Symb. Jan 19, 2001 Feb. 14, 2001 % Change
ADPT $13 $12.38 - 4.8
APCC $13 $12.38 - 4.8
CCL $55 $59.02 + 7.3
CGNX $22 $25.94 +17.9
MCRS $19 $18.06 - 4.9
VOL $23 $27.09 +17.8
So, over just a month, the bias isn't quite as strong as
when we view it from more than a quarter. However, you can
see that buying good growth stocks that are currently rated
"5" on Timeliness isn't necessarily a bad thing if your time
horizon is longer than the next heartbeat!
I use Value Line a lot. I have used the CD-Rom version as
well as the paper version. I'm old fashioned I guess; still
prefer the paper type! However, the on-line and CD-Rom versions
offer some interesting screening abilities.
Hope this helps a bit.
Best regards, Tom |
