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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: Jack of All Trades who wrote (67579)2/14/2001 7:10:13 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (2) of 436258
 
I was wondering about that myself.
By the time everyone knows something it is worthless.

That said ther are months when it is bang on. RMBS hit dead on (within 1/4 point) 4 or 5 months in a row last year.

My take:
It all depends on who has the calls and who has the puts and it is impossible to know.

If retail joe has calls and funds have puts or vice versa, joe gets creamed.

If funds are heavy on both sides, it closes on the nose.

Is this reasonable.
If so, how does one tell?

M
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