Ariba Technologies (Nasdaq-ARBA) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Ariba Technologies (Nasdaq-ARBA)

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To: sschahal who wrote (1717)	2/14/2001 7:58:01 PM
From: Bruce Brown	Read Replies (2) of 2110

Can you please share your thoughts regarding Ariba - especially at these levels (~22)? The only real negative i could see in their last quarter's report was quite a large increase in ARs - although mgmt indicated that that was per their plan (and guidance?). What is your opinion re: this increase in ARs - quite a red flag or not much of an issue? How do you view Ariba's prospects over the next several years? I would never impose a comment such as "if you loved it at $170 or $100 or $49, you'll love it at $22". No need to ask me of my opinion of the AR's - look what the market told you about it. I will own more shares of Ariba simply via the acquistion of Agile Software which I had hoped would remain independent and knock over some fresh pins away from their lead pin in the electronics industry with their collaboration products. I do like the prospects of the combined company over the next several years as the entrenchment in global e-business continues to expand. It is something that is not going to be going away and the customer base which Ariba enjoys is not to be overlooked. I prefer software companies like BEA Systems, i2, Siebel, Checkpoint and even Agile to capture some of the more 'lock in' of high barriers to entry, high switching costs. In general, I prefer software games because they allow for an environment where it is not a 'winner take all' scenario. Much has been written lately about the Agile acquisition, but I take the optimistic side even thought that may not make me any money going forward with this one. I have a lot of patience and think that the digestion phase for an acquisition like Agile always takes time. I wouldn't be surprised to see continued consolidation in the space as we move forward just as we saw in the SCM and CRM spaces over the past few years. Plenty of other factors would be able to address your longer term considerations. Watch the earnings and revenue growth to see if it draws investors back to Ariba over the next 8 to 12 quarters. If Ariba can grow both over the next few years, then it will be a testament to their competitive position in the business and the accumulation phase by the larger players in the investing world will begin to show the direction on the road map. BB

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