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Strategies & Market Trends : Bonds, Currencies, Commodities and Index Futures

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To: Chip McVickar who wrote (1223)	2/14/2001 9:29:37 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (2) of 12410

Hi Chip, wheat has been basing for quite a while, and the whole grain complex has seemed like we should have seen more upside the past 12-18 months. The underlying supply situation has been strong, obviously. all of the wheat contracts have bounced off of the lows of yesterday, and the July and Sept daily charts look more constructive, the weekly chart does appear to be a rounding bottom. I know I've become a bit impatient with the grain markets, looking for more upside but that may be a good sign. Wheat's Q 2 1993 low and it's early 1996 top gave us the time projection of 1.618 of that time period, and lead to what looks like the time turning point that occurred last year during the midyear low in Wheat. In other words the decline from the top was 1.618 of the rally. ( I realize that the actual LOW in price was in late 1999) but we did not see substantial impulse action after that. But some of my timing and elliot work says that the early Jan 2001 high was a significant turning point and will not trade above it and make our lows for the year in July or Aug. The Oct 1999 high, then the May 26 2000 high is the same distance as the Jan 19th 2001 high ( I know that we actually made the price high a week or so early) I also have some other Fib turning points near that Jan 2001 high. wheat It should be watched closely. let's keep an eye on it. The Dec corn contract has stayed above it's.618 retracement @ 242 and that might be worth a buy near 2.42, with a stop below 2.38 John

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