Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: Warpfactor who wrote (87230)	2/14/2001 10:05:12 PM
From: isopatch	Read Replies (1) of 95453

Warp. Don't beat up on yourself! Listen. Am not being sarcastic or coy with you, OK? Saying you're "too stupid" to time important market cycles is just silly. Kodiak made a good post here about 2 months ago arguing strongly against such self deprecation. Most of the people I know who have some skill at calling important turns in the market and or specific market sectors have spent years of study and in my own case benefited from extensive professional training to develop that ability. To become a broker back in 1976, the major W.S. firm I went to work for put me through a demanding training program that lasted about 3 months. In fact, their training was widely considered to be the best on Wall Street at that time. In addition to lots of book work, and branch office orientation they flew us the NY HQ several times for special training classes taught a rotating group of top analysts, brokers, CPA and mgt types. Just one ex. Steve Shobin who taught the TA class is now head of Market Analysis for Lehman. And that was only the beginning. The guys in the TA dept, in particular, went out of their way to be available and helpful to brokers like me who wanted to lean how the market worked not just sell stocks to clients. Some of these guys were brilliant and had a huge impact on me. It wasn't unusual to brain storm with one of them on the phone almost every week. After 6 years of that, and working with hundreds of clients with a large variety of investment styles it's only reasonable to conclude I'd have an edge vs the average investor with 5 or 10 years in the game. Then working as a professional investor since 1986 refined and improved my portfolio management, risk control as well as the skill to understand and anticipate important trend changes. Look Warp. I'm a hack soccer player. Played a few years love the game and was a fairly decent player. BUT I don't beat up on myself because I don't play like one of the top pros who work individually with my two sons every week. One of the most unfortunate things I've noticed about this and most other web threads is the people who spend their lives as electrical engineers or doctors and think they're going to just show up and right away perform at a comparable level with a pro who's developed his expertise over an entire career. Kind of absurd? Yes IMHO it certainly is. But this is the kind of ego some professional people bring to the market and it's one of the reasons a great many of them loose it all eventually. So take it easy on yourself. If this were easy, we'd all be like Warren Buffett. Regards Isopatch

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