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Technology Stocks : PRI Automation (PRIA)
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To: Ian@SI who wrote (1117)2/15/2001 1:57:20 PM
From: Proud_Infidel  Read Replies (1) of 1214
 
Ian,

, I think Gottfried has the right approach. Buy good stocks, then go enjoy ones life by sailing or whatever. Watching the tick by tick moves is not productive.


It is so simple yet so many people lose by trying to outsmart the market. A company like PRIA or AMAT down 70% from its high is a no-brainer IMO, if one has a time horizon longer than the next CNBC commercial.

I also am amazed at the people who try to define this downturn as necessarily lasting a certain amount of time before heading back up. Every trough is different. This one can in no way compare to the one in '96 or even that of '98 IMHO. '96 was the result of a massive capacity buildout, while this downturn is mostly a demand side issue. Once we have everyone and their brother building 300mm plants, we will need to worry about another '96. However, comparing that cycle with this cycle does nobody any good since every cycle really is different, although people are afraid of acknowledging this because they hate the phrase "this time its different." Perhaps it would be easier to say "every cycle is different."

Making big bets assuming a cookie cutter scenario will come to fruition in this sector is not smart IMO; doubly so when doing so betting against the likes of an AMAT. To me, this is an obvious and immutable law of investing.

Regards,

Brian

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