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Technology Stocks : PRI Automation (PRIA)
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To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (1118)2/15/2001 2:19:49 PM
From: Ian@SI  Read Replies (3) of 1214
 
Brian,

If memory serves me correctly, 96 was in part due to the Asian Contagian, starting with the Baht becoming worthless and finishing with the Russian Debt default and the LongTerm Capital Management fiasco.

I doubt that capital spending on 300mm will lead to a capacity glut anywhere near as quickly as putting a similar amount of $ into 200mm. 200 mm ramp up to full yield in less than 6 months. I'd be surprised if the first wave of 300mm fabs ramp up to full yield in less than 2 years. There's a lot of bleeding edge technology going into those fabs: Cu, 0.13µ and smaller feature sizes in addition to the larger diameter wafers. New processes, new consumables will all contribute to lower yields.

Unless there's a global recession, the 300mm transition could last much longer than other upcycles.

I do agree with your main point. Every cycle, or part thereof, is different. Those who're expecting an exact repeat of the previous or some prior cycle are likely to get hurt.

Ian.
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