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Pastimes : Alan Greenspan MUST GO:
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To: BWAC who wrote (260)2/15/2001 3:22:36 PM
From: wdlngduc  Read Replies (1) of 494
 
BWAC. Obviously, all had NOT been factored in. The market did what it logically could ONLY do: drop! And longer and more drastically than expected.

I think you were over-analyzing. I know the market sometimes acts in a perverse manner, trying to make most people wrong, but when you watch the action just prior to an expected announcement and it is discounted, the market will usually drop if the news is NOT a surprise. The surprise in this particular case would have been if Greenspan had dropped rates by MORE than fifty basis points. Then it would have rallied strongly, at least for that particular day.

Note that since his action the NASDAQ has been creamed. Only today is it mounting a worthwhile rally; a feel-good rally that should be sold tomorrow. If most people think we've seen a bottom, the odds are overwhelming that we have not. Sixty-one percent bullish does not a bottom make! Be careful!
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