Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: BigBull who wrote (87299)	2/15/2001 3:42:40 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) of 95453

Bullsky re: GDP ... I dont think my "crystal ball" is in the league of those who do, or don't see 2 qtrs of contracting GDP. Rather than the downside being so deep, prolonged or sharp; which it may become & I think the natural odds are to under-estimate a downturn; rather than over-estimate it - coming out of a Boom Bubble - where buy the Dip is the mantra...> - it's the much lower upside that I see - much lower growth rates for earnings & revenue after we exit the downturn and much, much lower Cap ex spending for tech. We saw an anomaly burst-blip in tech cap ex spending - Y2K, the IPO boom , the internet infrastructure buildout, the desktop boom and this massive liquidity pump - it's lower growth rates that will require valuation multiple contraction - hence much, much lower valuations that I see coming that will keep contracting the NASDQ - nice tradeable 400-500 point rallies; BUT still within an overall Bear trend. CIEN at a PE of 294 here - up 20% ? - in for a short trade/ partial position; will add add 120 & 150. Short PPRO AMZN this week in initial partial entires - I think PPRO goes to zero & I never cover... AMZN mid single digits and CIEN is a $50 stock in a positive environment when multiples contract & a $35 fair value stock here. NAZ really needs to see 1650-1800 fundamentally AND technically imho - I can not believe that this bubble gets "cured" in a 2 qtr inventory cleansing... I read a newspaper of a mid-sized blue-collar rust belt city today - business section had the following headline - Goodyear lays off 7,000; Nat Steel lays off xxxx... on & on... layoffs & cutbacks; from Chrysler to Dell... add the heating bills & let a few neighbors, or church members, or relatives get laid off & consumer sentiment is going to do a 180 on Main Street USA imho and tax time isn't far off either... Nothing makes sense here - we have a negative saving rate & the worst credit quality from consumers to corporate in banking history - all atop an equity bubble with full employment that now is coming to an end... and consumer spending is GDP - and with everyone from Chrysler to Dell laying off - how are 4% vs. 6%, or 7% vs. 9% rates going to change anything ? Auto mfg's are offering 0.9% financing & can't sell cars ? Are telcoms going to spend more - because rates got cut 2% ? We've pumped & printed soooooooo many "Dollars" into the system - that the US Dollar has to break somewhere ... Hmmmm; on CNBC a Technician see's O&G emerging from a 20 year underperform cycle - maybe there's hope for Gold as well ~ ... back to the sweet peacefull comfort of 50% CASH ~

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