Hi Chip, when did that USDA report come out? that is interesting.
here is last Friday CBT comments:
Agricultural Commentary
Grain and Soycomplex futures ended on a weaker note with most commodities setting new contracts lows at the end of the week. Soybean futures finished considerably lower. Even though there were mild concerns over dry conditions in Southern Argentina and news that Indonesian feed mills purchased 150,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans, prices were pressured to the downside at the start of the week in response to speculative selling. Also weighing on the market was spillover weakness from soymeal and a lower than expected weekly export inspections number. On Tuesday though, futures rebounded from Monday's losses and moved into positive territory due to short covering activity. An additional boost came from prospects that Thursday's supply/demand report may indicate a small drop in ending stocks as well as an increase in exports. However, speculative selling emerged again and pulled prices lower for most of the week. The decline was also attributed to expectations of larger South Americ!
an soybean production and the USDA supply/demand data. The much-anticipated report showed an increase in ending stocks as a result of a 15 million-bushel reduction in exports and a 10 million-bushel decrease in crushings. In addition, many participants were surprised to see a revision to last years South American crop size by 700,000 tonnes for Brazil and 500,000 tonnes for Argentina. The market established new contract lows on Thursday and Friday, but posted substantial gains at the end of the week. Lifting prices higher was technical consolidation, short covering activity and ideas that there may be a rise in export business after recent declines. Nonetheless, the March contract was 12 1/4 cents lower during the week, ending at $4.56 1/4. Soyoil futures ended substantially lower, as they focused on world vegoil markets for direction. Prices traded to the downside most of the week in response to losses in Malaysian palm oil futures. Despite commercial buying interest limiti!
ng declines on Thursday, the market remained in negative territory as it established new contract lows. Speculative selling as well as a reduction in the USDA's projected exports and domestic use contributed to the substantial drop. However futures rebounded on Friday, with help from commercial buying and strength in soybeans. The March future ended 56 points lower at $.1451. Soymeal futures finished in negative territory. Weak cash values and speculative selling triggered the negative tone on Monday, but ideas that the market was oversold and a rebound in cash prices helped futures to climb into positive territory for two consecutive sessions. On Thursday though, the market fell back to the downside on spillover weakness from soybeans and after the USDA supply/demand report revealed a decrease in exports. However, firm cash prices and the weekly export sales number that came within range of analysts' expectations limited downside potential. Futures traded a two-sided sessio!
n on Friday, as Thursday's losses carried over, while ideas that export demand may increase in the coming weeks provided support. The March contract was $3.50 lower during the week, ending at $163.60.
Corn futures ended to the downside, with many participants focused on the USDA data and prospects for export demand. With a lack of fresh news, the market began the week lower, as several traders remained on the sidelines prior to Thursday's supply/demand data. Also prompting the downtrend was a weekly export inspections figure that came in at the low end of estimates and expectations that the USDA would reduce its export projection as well as increase its ending stocks. However on Tuesday, the market climbed into positive territory due to short covering and technical buying before moving back to the downside for two successive sessions. Regardless of reports that China was having trouble in meeting some previous corn commitments, prices were weighed on by technical weakness and selling interest. Additional pressure came from spillover weakness from soybeans and a lack of support from the supply/demand report, which was released as expected. At the end of the week though, fu!
tures traded a two-sided session near unchanged levels with support from short covering activity and ideas that export demand would potentially increase. The USDA announced on Friday that 177,800 tonnes of U.S. corn was sold to Japan and that negotiations were being finalized about whom would bear the cost of inspecting U.S. corn for Starlink contamination. However upside potential was limited, as many participants were less eager to take on new positions. The March contract finished the week 2 3/4 cents lower at $2.10 1/4. Rough Rice futures finished the week lower, with most contracts setting new lows at the end of the week. The market posted substantial gains on Monday, as it received support from commercial buying. However, futures came under pressure from technical selling and prices fell into negative territory for most of the week. Despite Thursday's supply/demand report showing an increase in exports and a decrease in ending stocks, some contracts established fresh l!
ows following additional weakness from declines in corn and soybeans. Even though many contracts set new lows again at the end of the week, the market managed to climb into positive territory with help from gains in other commodities. The March future settled 3 cents lower at $5.63.
Wheat futures ended on a defensive note. Worries about beneficial weather conditions in the U.S. Great Plains and a tame weekly export inpsections number pressured prices to the downside at the beginning of the week. The market was unable to recover from Monday's losses, as the negative tone continued into Tuesday's session following news that the USDA attache in Australia increased the country's wheat crop estimate. At midweek though, a technical rebound from recent declines and reports of potential export demand pushed futures to trade at steady to slightly higher levels. However, the market moved back into negative territory on Thursday after the release of the supply/demand report, which revealed a 25 million-bushel increase in ending stocks as a result of a 25 million-bushel cut in exports. The downward trend was also attributed to declines in soybeans, in spite of a strong weekly export sales figure. At the end of the week though, futures traded near unchanged levels a!
mid an absence of fresh news and ongoing concerns over benign weather conditions in the winter wheat growing regions. However, prices received underlying support from oversold conditions and gains in soybeans. The March contract was 5 3/4 cents lower during the week, ending at $2.66 1/4. Oat futures finished the week posting substantial losses, as they established new contract lows on Thursday and Friday. The market followed the price action of other commodities and was pressured by technical weakness. The March future settled 3 cents lower at $1.02 1/4.
WEEKLY PRICE STATISTICS
March Soybeans: High, $4.69 1/2, Low, $4.52, Settlement $4.56 1/4
March Soyoil: High, $.1505, Low, $.1435, Settlement $.1451
March Soymeal: High, $167.40, Low, $162.10, Settlement $163.60
March Corn: High, $2.14 3/4, Low, $2.09 1/4, Settlement $2.10 1/4
March Wheat: High, $2.76, Low, $2.65 1/4, Settlement $2.66 1/4
March Oats: High, $1.06, Low, $1.01 1/2, Settlement $1.02 1/4
March Rice: High, $5.83, Low, $5.52, Settlement $5.63
Here is a recap of the reports released this week:
Export Inspections for the week ended February 1:
Wheat: 13.354 m. bu.; pre released est. was 13-18 m. bu.
Corn: 31.622 m. bu.; pre released est. was 30-36 m. bu.
Soybeans: 17.732 m. bu.; pre released est. was 21-27 m. bu.
February USDA Supply/Demand:
Estimated Ending Stocks:
Soybeans 2000-01: 345 m. bu.
Corn 2000-01: 1.891 b. bu.
Wheat 2000-01: 839 m. bu.
Soyoil 2000-01: 2.290 b. lbs.
Rice 2000-01: 24.6 m. cwt
Oats 2000-01: 80 m. bu.
USDA Weekly Export Sales for the week ended February 1:
Wheat: 25.5 m. bu.
Corn: 40.5 m. bu.
Soybeans: 29.5 m. bu.
Soymeal: 108.7 th. tn.
Soyoil: 2.3 th. tn.
Rice: 88.1 th. tn.
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