What CIEN giveth - NT taketh away ~
10,000 layoffs at NT ?!?!
... I think we've had a non-stop week of daily 5-10,000 layoff announcments.
Consumer sentiment is job security sentiment and the job security environment is rapidly deteriorating people !
... and HP didn't exactly rock anyone's socks either & as CNBC pointed out - HP get's one out of every $20 Tech-information technology dollars - so its news is not good news...
Bullsky - ditto on O'Neill's economic statements
Add to what BHI said today & I think I may dump all my oils except EEX & MEXP and laggards PGO & NR tomorrow at the open; but putting stops in under my entry price in what I continue to hold....
Tomorrow - I hope to end up about 5-10% both long & short tech; 30-35% Gold/Silver & PM stocks, 5-7% long Oils and 50% cash - trolling for more shorts and waiting for an OSX 115ish retest coming imho and then - ONLY buying in "IF" I see positive economic trends, or the sign of a bottom and signs that the NAZ is basing & not collapsing and then; perhaps not more than a 40-50% position with trailing stops.
We could be in total " CYCLE ROLLOVER" here folks - "could be"...because if the NAZ tanks sub 2000 - the OSX "aint" going to 160 - it's going to 80-90ish and in a slowing Global Economy; we could see $18-$22 Oil being spoken of within months and it's game, set & match for Boom 2001 - and as excardog quoted XOM's CEO Lee Raymond in saying - yes; indeed - "one month is a long time in the Oilpatch" - and the Oil Majors may have this one figured out; because they've not unleashed Cap Ex dollars and maybe the market has the Oil Majors figured out as well - because $80-$85 XOM here is telling us that the Street isn't buying sustained $25+ oil.
I have no qualms about sitting basically in just Gold Stocks & Cash for the next 2 qtrs - with perhaps a 15-20% in & out/long & short; swing trading position in tech & Oils.
I think we maybe entering into a true and final "capitulation" phase of this Bear market in which the DOW also finally falls.
There simply just is not any clear handle on where tech earnings, or revenue's are going & the Street hates uncertainity & I think we're rolling over into the accelerated Bear capitulation phase.
Bull - you pointed out the "commericals" being so short vs the "amateurs" buying the dips and no one listened.
We're seeing the NAZ selloff & rollover on all rallies and if we can't hold a DCB rally on 2 Fed .50bp cuts - something's obviously wrong.
You've pounded the table on the slowing Asian economies & you'd think the Asian Contagian that caused the collapse of the 97-98 Oilpatch cycle happened in the Palezoic era, or something ?
Michael Hapless - take a look at the 5-10 year NAZ chart - the longterm chart trendline as well as historic multiple valuation metrics; they both take us clearly & directly to NAZ 1400-1800 - so if you can't see, or understand how someone see's that as the only "logical" and investable vs. tradeable conclusion to what everyone now see's as a true & classic market bubble collapse & not a new paradigm correction; then may God have mercy on your soul & your portfolio - because you're clueless...
NT- a rock among rocks - and what just happened tonight folks ?
As I've said many, many times - there is NO BOTTOM in place in Techland as long as we have 20-50% overnight, or after-hours implosions in core-name tech stocks.
People have been calling a bottom in LU for 6 months and this thread was calling one back in Sept & Oct at NAZ 3200-3500 - so why should they be right now (VBG)?
That initial entry into CIEN short at a PE of 278 & 27 x Sales doesn't look to bad when comapred to NT here - ;) and imho; CIEN isn't owning up to an inventory problemo fwiw.
OBVIOUSLY - there is still tremendous "fluff" in these stocks when we continue to see 20% - 50% overnight & after-hours hits for just misses & warnings.
Tech is still way over-owned & mutual fund redemptions will spike on any sentiment change in this market & Q1 Tech reporting is NOT going to bring positive news folks & tax time is coming upon a negative savings, debt-laden consumer who is now picking up the daily newspaper to read headline, after headline about layoff, after layoff and WHODATHUNKIT ? - that the "R" word would now be in daily use here ?
The Bear is still alive & well & just may have caught a pause that refreshes his downhill run here people...
I'd be putting the pom-poms away here & locking in some of those gains in this move; as cycle rollover is never easy to see & we might not be seeing it coming - because it may have allready arrived (VBG)~
I'm going back to my original thesis - you can't have a total collapse of the US MFG sector & it can't recover earningswise with KING DOLLAR - so either way; I win with gold stocks; either in an economic collapse, or the dollars correction to rescue US Corportate profits & the Mid East situation is the gravy.
A continued Strong DOllar will kill US Auto Sales & drive the US into a prolonged recession - The US Auto Industry had a huge run here folks and was a big part of this economic boom as 1 in 7 jobs are still auto-related people !
The US Consumer is tapped out - record debt levels, deliquencies & bankruptices are spiking; a negative savings rate - ie: nothing to fall back on and now corporate cutbacks & layoffs are just starting...
Watch for consumer sentiment to turn & collapse here shortly imo - especially with the combo of this Winter's heating bills and April Tax Season around the bend...
It's time to play defense again folks... ring the register on this little 15-30% move we just got in Oilpatch stocks & put it in the bank.
Defense & patience... the OSX "aint" going to 150-160 tomorrow....and the institutions that MUST put "OPM/other peoples money" - not their's to work; are the only one's keeping this market afloat imho and that's not for long...
HP, NT tonight - who tomorrow ?
Q1 Tech reporting may be worse, much worse - not better than what we're seeing here fwiw...
These Tech DCB's need to be sold quick - because they are all rolling over into "round-trippers" fwiw...
The reason to be at high cash levels here is that we may see the "mother of all buying opps" at NAZ 1600-1800; and shame, shame upon anyone fully invested at a NAZ 2300-2500 "bottom" - who like JQP back in Sept '99 - couldn't take advanatage of such a buying opp (VBG).
The "MOABO" - it's worth waiting for imo....
CASH IS KING ~ and you can't "nail" the MOABO - without lot's of CASH. |
