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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: hueyone who wrote (39234)2/15/2001 10:21:49 PM
From: StockHawk  Read Replies (3) of 54805
 
>>can we permanently dismiss the untenable notion that anytime is a good time to buy a gorilla?<<

That line is one I was never comfortable with as it too much of an absolute. Also, I've always looked fondly at timing attempts despite their disdain here. A year ago statements such as the above were easy to accept as recent history proved them true. Now recent history makes such statements appear wrong-headed. Drawing investment conclusions is very different from drawing scientific conclusions. In science if an experiment can be replicated it seen as proof. But with investing, just because a thing works five times in a row does not mean it will work the next time, or even that it will ever work again. Things change.

However, before dismissing the "anytime theory" it might be worthwhile to recall that study of the hypothetical investor called Ms. Unlucky. It seems that Ms. Unlucky would invest just once per year, and always at the exact moment when the market reached its annual high. The surprising result is that after 20 years Ms. Unlucky turns out to be rich, as the compounding effect of the market, and the long term upward movements of stocks makes up for her extremely poor timing.

StockHawk
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