123 Trends and Reversals Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : 123 Trends and Reversals

QQQ 635.77

+0.5%

Oct 29 4:00 PM EDT

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To: Ally who wrote (132)	2/15/2001 11:55:28 PM
From: ~digs	Read Replies (2) of 147

Which would you regard as more telling... the COMP or the NDX 100 index? I guess it depends upon what you're used to. I think that for the most part... if one person is looking at the NDX, and another person is analyzing the COMPX... if their methods are similar they should reach virtually the same conclusion. I've always done my index analysis on the COMPX because I think it's a better proxy for Nasdaq stocks... but that's just an opinion and maybe I should be doing both? I don't know... but it doesn't seem necessary. If I were to be trading NAZ100 stocks only... I suppose I'd watch the NDX more closely. How did you measure 2550 as the first key target? I'll be honest with you in saying that there's no simple explanation... and that in looking at your figure of ~2600 (especially in hindsight) it appears to have been the better one in terms of confirming this reversal, however short term it may have turned out to be. My 2550 target was a rough one. Picked partially because it was a nice round number... also because I've seen it bandied about by traders several times in the past few days. It also would represent a nice solid rally and would most certainly take us out of the steep downward channel that we had been in for several days prior. Interestingly, it acted as an intraday pivot point several times this afternoon... and as it turns out... the index did end up closing above it... on volume of greater than 2 billion. Although the NT warning appears to have ruined the case for bulls... I'm not convinced that the market won't shrug it off when all is said and done at the end of the day Friday. That candlestick from Wednesday was pretty convincing IMO. But... maybe I'm just wearing rose colored glasses and imposing my own beliefs upon the chart? I certainly hope that is not the case but do believe it's a possibility. After all I'm pretty much an amateur and charting is something that I just began doing a few years ago. I still have conscious problems with my objectivity at times... so I welcome anyone's dissenting viewpoint. I do play both the short and long side almost interchangeably so it is not as though I'm set in my ways as being permabull or permabear. At times however... once I discover something that I think could foretell the direction of a particular stock or index... I find myself looking for further justification of that opinion... and occasionally ignoring something that doesn't. No doubt, suppressing one's ego is easier said than done. Anyhow, without rambling on too much further... I think it's important to note that the chart I posted earlier was logarithmic. I've taken the liberty of drawing up another one using a standard scale and posted it on the web. Not surprisingly... the picture is quite different... suggesting the possibility of more downside... with perhaps a marginal new low within the next week or so... and then subsequent double bottom formation. Or maybe we'll just go straight down into the abyss? geocities.com Funny how today's rally topped out right at that 40 day EMA. I know some traders watch that average closely. Any thoughts on which of the two charts I posted would be more valid? Do most traders rely log charts, or not?

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