pat, here is one post I found on Raging Bull. What do you think about the possibility that whatever NT is losing is being picked up by smaller companies. Wonder what you or anyone else thinks of these comments and the possibility of market share losses at NT.
In addition, I had been saying that JDSU has more to gain when Ciena wins a long-haul DWDM contract because they have far less internal component capabilities..unlike NT.
Here is some of the key quotes from the link below. I did not realize that the DWDM market was that small (4billion)....in which it makes sense why NT is warning..they are just losing out.
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In contrast, Nettles says he expects Ciena to dominate the market for long-haul DWDM gear, which Ciena predicts will be close to $4 billion in 2001. Chief competition in this space will come from Nortel, which according to Nettles has linked its optical solutions too closely to its existing Sonet kit. "They're a tough competitor, but they're going to be hamstrung by not having the right products at the right time."
A second quote.
The lion's share of growth, Nettles says, should come from sales of long-haul CoreDirector gear. In contrast, business in the metropolitan area networking market, which some other companies and industry sources emphasize as key to the optical segment, will represent a much smaller opportunity. "The metro market is smaller in scale than long haul," Nettles says. "We expect it to be $900 million in 2001, and we expect to get our fair share of that." Indeed, Nettles thinks the metro market is shaping up to be "a three-horse race" between Ciena, Nortel Networks Corp. (NYSE/Toronto: NT - message board), and ONI Systems Inc. (Nasdaq: ONIS - message board).
ragingbull.lycos.com |
