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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: Seeker of Truth who wrote (39347)2/16/2001 12:30:56 AM
From: Pirah Naman  Read Replies (1) of 54805
 
Malcolm:

It isn't so much a matter of thinking the growth rate will decay at that rate, it is simply a method of modeling that is more conservative. Also, I think that if you (or anybody) actually does the exercise, you will see the results are not so bad. Many times I have read that "CSCO has never been underpriced" yet in the past 3 years there have been at least 2 times I can remember where projecting growth in free cash flow to continue at recent rates for only 4-5 years, and matching the S&P rate of free cash flow growth thereafter, resulted in it being priced under the estimated intrinsic value. Even MSFT met this standard a few years ago - yes, prior to any of the big legal problems. INTC and EMC have been priced well on numerous occasions. And so on.

Of course, no estimates that we make are "right" because the future is not ours to see. But the value of this method is that it provides a consistent standard to apply.

- Pirah
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