Hello Own,
I have read your note carefully, with interest. You do not believe what you wrote literally but made a good try for debate sake. The principles you stated reads well, especially for sound bite effects on CNBC, and only good for sound bite effects for CNBC.
I agree that great things are done by taking great risks, but on a sub-component by sub-component basis, as I had previously noted "Simple answers are tried by engineers, but only experimentally first, sub-component by sub-component, and never on single massively complicated systems that is expensive to fix".
The pyramids, bridges, moon shots, and especially the emancipation, were all, in a sense, sub-components of this world, the failure of any of which under destructive testing conditions would be soon forgotten. Further more, all of these achievements were done gradually, in a considered fashion, and at an controlled (or rather, naturally slow) pace. Put in another way, there were little pyramids before large ones, and some folks got emancipated before others.
Message 15355350
<<Incrementalism kills big projects>>
Very very few happenings in the world arose not out of “incrementalism”. Even Mr. Einstein would have to agree.
The experiment you started of with in our current discussion, namely the application of massive interest rate drop to kick start the economy, is an experiment that would tear at the very fabric of the world and not limit the potential damage to any single sub-component. You may be willing to experiment thus, but most folks would not, intuitively sensing extreme danger and thus not advisable.
Take a more recent example than the emancipation, say the Russian reform that was done with a dash and flourish accompanied by much enthusiasm. Well, in one great wallop, Russia was, and is no more, at least not yet.
It is neat that you stated <<You can't steer an oil tanker with a popsicle stick, no matter how hard you try...in fact, if you tried it, you would conclude it can't be steered at all...>>. I agree, but popsicles are what the maestro have left. What to do?
In line with you suggestion <<Same with wimpy 500 basis point interest>>, gad, Japan has tried all and yet all is not enough, now what for the financial technicians of Tokyo?
Interlinked economic systems, after all, is a much more complicate beast than the stuff one sees at the bottom of a quantum well, and makes a messier mess.
Disregarding the tone of my note (friendly banter), please trust that this exchange is appreciated. Thanks.
Chugs, Jay |
