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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME

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To: Terry Laws who wrote (47489)	2/16/2001 9:23:16 AM
From: Rande Is	Read Replies (5) of 57584

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Keep your COOL! . . . . .and I'm not talking about Cyberian Outpost! Ouch! Nasdaq limit down on "inflationary" economic reports. . . PPI surprise of 1.1% vs. .03% and core PPI 0.7% vs. 0.1% [But, auto output down 6.6%]. Bad news. . . Bad news. . . . and more Bad news. . . Until Our HEADS Spin So we know raising interest rates is bad news. Lowering interest rates? That is bad news because it implies a recession, which is really bad news! And the more the economy slows, the worse the news. But heaven forbid the economy show signs of strengthening or pulling out of recession. That automatically implies inflation. . .and everyone knows that inflation is terrible news! So what constitutes GOOD news for the economy? The economy heating up or slowing down? At this point, it would seem they are BOTH bad news. And that illustrates the power of the media and the Po' Boys analysts and other manipulators who spin the news into whatever gets them the best ratings or profits. The fact that the PPI rose and housing starts rose shows that we may not be headed for recession as fast as some had thought (hoped?). . . could be construed as a WELCOME RELIEF to the the slow downward spiral that comes with recession. So again. . . .what would be called GOOD news at this point? It would seem NOTHING! >sigh< But. . . .consider this for a moment. . . . uV ajeD Remember the first week of March, when we sold off all our tech stocks just before the market dumped? Remember the mania among the bulls? What could be called BAD news then? Nothing. The markets could shrug off ANYTHING! And consider March's double tops look strikingly similar to the double bottoms of the Winter of 2001. . .looking at long-range. . .daily or weekly COMPX. . . . . . And the Market Euphoria of last spring is identical to the Market Dread felt today!! The bulls controlled EVERYTHING in the spring. The bears are in complete control today. Everyone has been trying to call the bottom. And we, here at HOME have mostly refrained from adding to that confusion. But to look at it another way, it would seem that we have reached "the reciprocal to last Spring's Top". . . Whether you call that a bottom or not is left to your own interpretation. But one thing is clear. . . When bears have this much control. . . and go into their manic highs, believing they are invincible. . .as they continue shorting the best-of-the-best stocks at their 52 week lows. . . . the end of their reign is VERY near. Uncle! All that is left is something to cause capitulation. . .and in comes all that sidelined money to buy the inexperienced individual's stocks at their bottoms. I am thinking less and less that we are looking into the face of the abyss. But more and more that the bears have shot their wad, and have nowhere left to go at this point. . . . the same as the bulls did in early March. The difference being that the bears will typically want to cover quickly . . . . so HEADS UP!! Capitulation was a LONG time coming. We knew it would be. . .and thought we might never even see it. But I believe we are seeing "sufficient capitulation" here. So rather than JOINING the pack and move to the Bear's Den. . . as the media would have you do. . . . . . the savvy investor will be looking to take positions during the worst of the panic. Here's another one to commit to memory. . . Buy the panic Sell the mania Ignore the media Best wishes, Rande Is

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