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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 681.92

-0.7%

Dec 31 4:00 PM EST

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To: HairBall who started this subject	2/16/2001 11:22:14 AM
From: Psycho-Social	Read Replies (1) of 99985

Adversity brings Opportunity: A confluence of negatives, coupled with low levels of bullishness in the sentiment indicators I follow, create a very favorable risk/reward situation for the weeks and months ahead, i.e. there will be substantially higher S&P and Nasdaq prices ahead. For example: S&P and Nasdaq Daily Sentiment Index Bullish readings have been in the teens in recent days (3dy & 5dy mov aves)and the 10dy mov aves dropped to the low 20s, which generally signals a fairly significant low is at hand. AMG Data reports outflows for the most recent week, esp from Tech Funds (contrarian indicator), the AAII Survey's bullish reading fell 25% points from the prior week. Finally, my own Nasdaq Business Sentiment Index readings (Recent Past and Near Future) have dropped close to and below their prior lowest levels, respectively. This is the most decisive confluence of bearish sentiment readings I've seen since around XMas.

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