Brcm is holding there but barely ...we shall see... I talk tomorrow.
Mark,
BRCM has seemed to hold around $75 I have not done TA but even with a recent downgrade and management's admission to a slowdown in growth, it still seems to hold $75. I am taking a wild guess we are going to see a bit of divergence from the large long term customers for BRCM such as NT, CSCO, etc. to JNPR and others that are more focused on voice over IP, other broadband services, etc. and have almost no exposure to circuit communications. The market is far more fundamentally focused now compared to 1998 and 1999. I just see some of these newcomers making inroads into the busines of Cisco, Nortel and Lucent. I am guessing and speculating.
The best move we made was the diversification into energy, financials and in your case, health care. A single stock or sector does not bother me nearly as much and I am far more confident in my portfolio allocation much of it attributed to you.
Btw, Jeff really shows HIs fiduciary responsibilities to His investors in a big way...a big grey area when you sell that many shrs.Jeff. Maybe something is up Glenn that we don't know about yet?
I can't say I am speculating about Amazon. This problem which will end up with a filing of Chapter 11. This was obvious more than three years ago. In my opinion there is no fiduciary responsibility coming from Jeff and there never has been. In fact, I do not believe one person in the management of that firm has ever believed they had a fiduciary responsibility. In my opinion, this group of people should get awards for spin above and beyond the hundreds of millions of dollars they have taken out of a money losing company.
The story is over. The "hogwash" comment from Bezos last year about cash was just that. It was hogwash and cash is a real problem. Amazon would have disappeared more than a year ago had Morgan Stanley not raised the $2.1 billion for them to use as a life raft to keep them afloat for a longer period of time than any other pure play B2C. Amazon never did anything better than many of the other pure play B2C's. Amazon outlasted them and Etoys would be here today had they had $2 billion in cash gifted to them.
This is the end. The analysts all had buys when Amazon was around a 100 but they are downgrading now. It would be disappointing to know the analysts believed their own hype. I will never know if they were hiding their thoughts or were just not that savy regarding retail.
My wife and I will soon be turning in our "voodoo bookmark." I plan to remove the pins and have it laminated for a scrapbook for my grandchildren if I ever have grandchildren. I will recall this company and every move vividly until the day I die which I hope is 50 years plus or more<G>
Here is the situation. On-line sales will grow and continue to grow for many years to come. Currently, most large traditional brick and mortar retailers are now focusing on having a dual channel outlet. These retailers are taking the growth. Amazon is no longer growing and likely will be shrinking in a few months. Most of the traditional stores are using their current inventory for both channels and their distribution channel for both retail channels. This is very cost effective and I can prove it. This is the future of likely the next decade. Many people, myself in particular, buy on-line. In my case, stores with what I want are not geographically convenient. The reason for buying on-line of others vary depending upon life style, etc. If you start looking at the front ends of Penneys on-line, Walmart, on-line, Kmart, on-line, Macys, on-line, etc., you will see slow improvements due to their hiring the code writers that lost their jobs during the dot com collapse.
Bezos cares only about himself. That is my opinion and if you lost your shirt due to him, he would say I warned you. There is no more left to this story. Let's move on. I anticipate the Chapter 11 filing around October of this year. I doubt I can get it to the exact month.
Glenn |
