Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: cnyndwllr who wrote (87456)	2/16/2001 1:50:48 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (2) of 95453

Here's the facts as I see them. Retail investors are getting flushed out of the tech market. Those stocks have a long way to fall, no matter what the technical indicators say, because the worst fears of smart money are beginning to come true. The economy is starting to feed on itself in an ever increasing downward cycle of negative factors and the fed has no cure because of energy induced stagflation. There is NO GOOD NEWS on the near horizon. Earnings warnings will start again soon and there is nothing to indicate that earnings will improve for most areas of the tech economy. Bounces will get weaker and weaker. The most cautious investors and those who have the mentality to short will prevail. When mutual fund redemptions have started, accelerated and then stopped, a recovery is possible but long term, the key is affordable and available energy. This kind of commentary makes me think of the patch in the winter of 98/99....(no, I won't search through posts to pull out old comments by folks on this thread). There was no light at the end of the tunnel. There was only one direction the patch would go, slowly down into the abyss. It was only a matter of time before $5 oil was a reality and we would be awash with cheap energy forever. There was little reason to buy and hold patch stocks because there really wasn't any future for most companies. No matter how you sliced it, the patch was at best dead money and most probably a terrible investment. I'm damn glad we didn't get stuck buying oil stocks back then. As to the future fundies in tech land. Many of the companies that are warning of slow downs are still growing entities. Valuations are suspect. Forward guidance is cloudy at best which adds to the worries of most market followers. Inflation. Layoffs. Sour sentiment. Never ending high energy prices. Pretty soon, we'll be reading about how the Sun is starting to run out of fuel and we'll all be left in the dark. I'm so scared, I can't believe I actually have to leave the house now and then.....

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