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To: BGR who wrote (85566)	2/16/2001 4:13:54 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (3) of 86076

the SnP is flat for two years now...and it's down over 20% from its high. as i have tried to explain earlier, the yardstick is whether riskless investments in t-bills outperform the stock market or not. when they do, the stock market is in a bear phase. and no, it doesn't have anything to do with whether it resonates with my opinion or not. it has more to do with common sense. every time in history when stocks were as overvalued as they are now, they have proven to be extremely poor long term investments, especially when adjusted for inflation (which means a sideways movement is actually a LOSS in real terms). you ignore history at your own peril, as i have repeatedly told you. and i would say the over 50% decline in the speculative Nasdaq bubble is a HUGE victory for the bears. what's really laughable is the state of denial the bulls are in....but that's in the nature of the game. the bear market will keep sliding down the slippery slope of hope... it's of course a great market for traders....as i can attest to.

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