Bill,
Presuming that both Greenspan and the Fed don't get it detracts from your credibility, IMO.
1. From where we came, slowing to almost no growth appears to be a severe contraction for most manufacturing companies. Nevertheless, most continue to produce near or at record levels of output.
2. Inflation is surprisingly tame.
3..Unemployment remains surprisingly low given what one would expect with current sentiment.
4. IMO, Fed is trying to strike a delicate balance between:
A. killing this boom which has brought so much prosperity to so many; and,
B. re-igniting the excessive confidence and spending boom which put the long term growth at risk.
If their outlook seems unduly pessimistic, risk of "A" increases.
If outlook becomes irrationally exuberant, risk of "B" returns.
Yet the increased liquidity the fed is pumping into the system, the easing of the Funds rates and the pending tax cuts will all stimulate growth.
No one, not Roth, not Greenspan and certainly not I, know when growth will return; or how strong it will be.
Ian. |
