Applied Micro Circuits Corp (AMCC) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Applied Micro Circuits Corp (AMCC)

AMCC 8.450

0.0%

Feb 3 4:00 PM EST

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To: SJS who wrote (1363)	2/16/2001 6:57:45 PM
From: FR1	Read Replies (1) of 1805

OK so what does everybody think of the coming month for AMCC? I talked to a broker at Merrill Lynch today and they still see a rally to 3200 - 3400 by April. Somehow I have a feeling we will rally if nobody big drops anymore bombs. What does anybody think? *Pros and Cons for a rally:* Pros: 1) There is nobody left to warn - everybody has warned in the worst possible way AND they say there is no guidance. It is hard to downgrade a business that has no forcast and says everything is gloom (the experts might do it anyway). If Europe slows down it will not have the enormous impact the US has already taken on the stock. 2) Tons of cash on the sidelines in trembling hands. We have had several tests and we know that if the signs are right there are plenty of people ready to invest. 3) Many wags in the business say the slowdown is because AG made money so hard to get that the ISPs can't borrow a dime. Hence no orders, no expansion, etc. Lowering interest is bound to eventually start to solve this problem. 4) The chip makers in Taiwan say the glut of chips is over by mid March to mid April. They ought to know since they make the chips. A few analyst have started to say they see the end of the glut. 5) There maybe surplus PCs, etc on the market due to layoffs but there is no surplus in optical semiconductors. CSCO said sales growth is linear for optical sector and NT said the same (NT lost big in sales on the old stuff). Cons: 1) Public confidence at a super low. A $40 broadband bill looks big to a family tight on money. You might eventually get a consumer strike. 2) We have to absorb surplus put on the market by the layoffs. When Wards bankrupts and shuts down 235 stores and lays off 36,0000 people - there is a lot of surplus equipment on the market (and no new store openings). When big company X lays off 10,000 employees they don't need the new office space or any new equipment. They are swimming in equipment and want to sell some of it. 3) The possibility that this spills over to Europe and Pacific Basin. Their slow down could add to the already slowed down sales.

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