Do you think that tech stocks are now priced for the worst and can only drop a little or go up from here?
How the hell do I know?<vbg>
Seriously, I think we all have a tendency to fall into the media's trap of using words like "tech stocks". Just what the hell is a tech stock? We should all be more careful to separate different sectors, subsectors and their associated companies. One can toss out the term oil stocks but once again, what the hell is an oil stock? These terms cover such a broad range of companies with different performance metrics and fundamentals that we should attempt to stop using such terms.
This thread has done a terrific job of pointing out many of the strengths and weaknesses of each oil/ng subsector when we're not at each other's throats<gg>. Having said this, I repeat that we should all try to shy away from the generalizations and focus on the specific unless the topic is an index, holder,etc.
Ed, in answer to your question, no absolutely not. <gg> Ok, I'll be more specific. No, I think there is plenty of downside possible on many stocks based on the current sentiment that a number of sectors in the US economy are in big enough trouble. So much so that a soft landing in these areas is unlikely. At the same time, I think too many folks look at their portfolio as their sole indicator of the US economy and say to themselves "wow...my port is down so we MUST be in recession". There's a HUGE difference between dropping stock, equity and MF prices and the overall health of the US economy.
When I used the patch as a reference I was looking at it this way. I bought UTI in Dec 98 at $8/share and the stock continued to fall to $5/share by March 99. Was I wrong to buy UTI (along with WFT/GRP, CAM/RON, FLC/RIG) in Dec 98? Was there more downside, sure. Like many, I don't think I can predict exactly when the reversal of fortune will happen. I also know that there's something to be said about being a little early to the party if you can afford to wait. After the reversal, I used the oil bull to make a nice chunk of change trading companies in the patch. I look forward to doing this in a number of 'tech' sectors in the future.
When will the markets reverse and either build a base or move north? FWIW, I also did a little nibbling today but I have plenty of dry powder available for future use. |
